Bull vs Bear: How Market Regimes Should Change Your Crypto Plan

Crypto does not move in a straight line. It moves in long phases, or regimes, where the rules of thumb that worked last month can quietly stop working.

What a regime is

A regime is the broad trend the market is in:

• Bull regime — prices trend higher, pullbacks get bought, risk appetite is strong
• Bear regime — prices trend lower, rallies get sold, cash and hard assets outperform

A common simple signal is whether Bitcoin is above or below its long-term moving average, such as the 200-day. It is not perfect, but it removes guesswork.

What to change in a bull regime

• Keep your DCA running, but do not raise it just because prices are rising.
• Rebalance on schedule. Bull markets are when trimming excess profits matters most.
• Keep loan-to-value low. Rising collateral makes borrowing feel safe right before it is not.

What to change in a bear regime

• Keep DCA running. This is where it does its best work, lowering your average cost.
• Route new cash to the most underweight asset instead of chasing bounces.
• Watch lending health closely. Falling collateral pushes LTV toward liquidation.

What never changes

Your target allocation, your refusal to share keys, and your habit of logging actual contributions. Regimes adjust the emphasis, not the plan.

Key takeaway

You do not need to predict the turn. Know which regime you are in, lean your actions accordingly, and let the plan carry you through both.